Afton Alps

000
FXUS63 KDLH 060550
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stratus is lingering over the area this afternoon. The 
  stratus and also fog is expected to redevelop across the 
  region tonight. 

- The next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms begins 
  late tonight into Sunday. More widespread rainfall arrives 
  Monday through Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of strong to severe weather for northern 
  Minnesota Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior
  early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Persistent stratus this afternoon is keeping temperatures on 
the cool side, only rising so far into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sites that manage to clear off will warm quickly within a short
time, like has happened for Brainerd and the Phillips areas. We
have been monitoring a cluster of showers and isolated storms 
which moved out of North Dakota this morning, and have been 
slowly decaying as they move east. Between the stratus and a 
general lack of instability or shear, this trend will continue 
this afternoon. In fact, doubt there will be much more than a 
few sprinkles for parts of Itasca and northern Cass counties 
before these decay completely by late afternoon. What stratus 
does not break up this afternoon is likely to expand in coverage
once again tonight, with some associated fog. Places that clear
out this evening are more likely to develop locally dense fog 
before the stratus slides in over it. Areas under clouds will 
have better visibility, as happened this morning. 

Our main upper level pattern keeps that ridge axis sitting just
west of the forecast area tonight, and with some weak ripples 
moving through that flow, we may get another cluster of 
showers/storms to affect the western CWA late tonight into 
Sunday. Forcing is rather weak and we are going to have to wait 
and see on details before increasing pops much over what we have
now. 

Sunday and Sunday night presents a bit of a conundrum, as we 
may have a repeat of today, with stratus lingering over the area
to keep temperatures on the cool side. However, if we can break
out of the clouds, it will be warm and humid with highs in the 
mid 70s to low 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
spread in from west to east during the daytime into the evening,
with some stronger ones possible for north central Minnesota. 
Storms will again weaken and decrease in coverage as they move 
east into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. 

The active weather pattern continues into next week as a 
strong, cut off upper level low pressure system crosses the 
northern Rockies, pushing a surface low from where it develops 
over eastern Montana early Monday northeast into northern 
Manitoba by Tuesday night, continuing northeast through 
Wednesday. This system appears almost fall-like with the tightly
wound surface low and deep upper level low. This system should 
bring us a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning 
Monday afternoon into Monday night, with additional chances for 
precipitation continuing Tuesday into Wednesday as slow moving 
frontal features move across the area. It appears the risk for 
severe storms Monday should stay to our west, but we may get 
some stronger storms Monday night. We will have the potential 
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with 
the best potential for the overlap of sufficient instability and
shear. 

The latter half of the work week will become cooler with highs
on Wednesday potentially staying in the 60s to low 70s with
clouds and a few showers. Blustery westerly winds will develop
for Wednesday in the wake of the front passage, with gusts
reaching 30mph or stronger. Conditions settle down through the
remainder of the work week, with slowly moderating temperatures
and a slight chance of lingering showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Areas of mid level and high clouds around the Northland tonight,
with a few light showers pushing southward across north central
MN. Showers should not have any impact on forecast terminals,
other than brief, very light rain. 

Expect stratus and fog again tonight, with development already
occurring at INL. Have included reduced vis and cigs at all
terminals, with a short period of IFR/LIFR conditions around 
sunrise. Stratus and fog lift, with improving conditions through
Sunday morning as winds increase from the southeast at 5-8kts. 

Chances for showers and storms increase after 07/00Z, with most
of the activity remaining west of forecast terminals until after
07/06Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current northeast winds over western Lake Superior are gusting
to 10-15kts, with waves in the 1 to 2 foot range. These
northeast winds will continue through tomorrow, becoming a
little stronger during the afternoon, and dropping off
overnight, with waves slowly diminishing with time. More active
weather returns Sunday night into early next week, with several
opportunities for showers and storms. In addition, east-
southeast winds increase Monday and Monday evening, with gusts
to 25kts along portions of the North Shore. Gale force gusts of
25 to 30 knots are expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along
the North Shore on Tuesday from the south. Winds switch to
northwest on Wednesday and increase still more before
diminishing again for the rest of the week. Gale Watches, and
then warning and advisories will likely be needed for at least
one day early to mid next week. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50
percent through the weekend into early next week as abundant
moisture stays in place. East to southeast winds will generally
remain under 15 mph today. A wetter pattern arrives Sunday
through Tuesday, with widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms
expected. Rainfall amounts of over 1 inch of rainfall is
possible along and north of the Iron Range. Winds will increase
significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on land 
starting Monday, increasing to a maximum on Wednesday behind a 
cold front. Expect southeasterly winds Monday to shift to 
southerly Tuesday with a secondary wind shift to northwesterly 
on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE