Boyne Mountain

000
FXUS63 KAPX 211742
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
133 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog tonight, locally dense.

- Seasonably mild and dry through the first half of the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Weak sfc boundary shifts low level winds off to the northwest and 
/north tonight into Thursday, as sfc high pressure slides across 
Ontario. Another moist night with calming sfc winds and light 
northwest low level flow will result in more fog, especially across 
northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan downwind of the lakes. 
This is highlighted well in the SREF and HREF probs for visibility 
<2 SM. Fog may linger a little longer, slowly dissipating through 
the morning hours. A couple of degrees of cooling is anticipated on 
Thursday, due to the high pressure building to the north and the 
northeast sfc winds coming off Lake Huron.

High pressure departs to the east later in the week and first half 
of the weekend as heights build aloft. Temperatures will moderate 
back into the 60s most areas, mid-upper 60s for some, with 
precipitation free weather anticipated.

By Sunday, deep trough/upper low across Ontario and vicinity will 
beat down the ridging over northern Michigan to some extent, 
allowing for a trailing frontal boundary to push eastward and 
southward across northern MI with time. There will be the potential 
for some showers along this boundary, especially across the eastern 
UP. Probs are generally low to medium (10-60%) for 0.1" of rain 
during this time. Cooler, more seasonably so, air behind this 
frontal boundary will try to filter in early next week, especially 
Tuesday. The degree of the cooldown is a little in question, with 
some ensemble guidance suggesting near normal temperatures and 
others a few degrees below. There is the potential for a quick 
rebound to above normal temperatures, however, after that. 

Rumblings of a significant cooldown later this month into early 
November making its rounds. Tough to say at this point, but what can 
be said is significant ridging will build across Alaska (-EPO) which 
generally correlates (but not always) to cooler air eventually 
spilling into the lower 48 and Great Lakes region. This to say, most 
ensemble guidance means suggest warmer than normal temperatures 
during this time frame, with a few individual outliers showing a 
more substantial cool down. Let's watch the trends. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions remain through the afternoon and evening hours with 
SKC-SCT250. Southwest winds today at about 5 to 15 knots for most. 
Another round of BR/FG tonight (potential for 1/4SM to 1SM VSBYs), 
with most terminals at play as the focus will shift to northwest 
lower into eastern upper Michigan. BR/FG may linger a little
longer into the morning hours on Thursday for some, dissipating 
around the 14 to 15Z time frame.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JLD