Boyne Mountain

000
FXUS63 KDTX 060551
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through 
early next week.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night 
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Quiet night across the region as high pressure has a firm grip on 
the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Mainly VFR 
conditions are expected with the drier northeast flow, but temps are 
quickly falling now as the winds drop off so there is a chance of 
some shallow fog. Will monitor satellite trends and obs to see if a 
short period of reduced vsbys needs to be added this morning. 
Diurnal cu will develop this afternoon for several hours before 
skies again go clear tonight. 

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF 
period. 

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

Broad area of surface high pressure continues to build south from 
Ontario late this afternoon and will maintain influence throughout 
the remainder of the weekend. Lingering axis of higher low level 
moisture quality still extends from near Grand Rapids southeast into 
the I-94 to Ohio border corridor late this afternoon. There remains 
potential for a few isolated showers to emerge yet through peak 
heating along this gradient through early evening. Otherwise, deep 
layer stability and subsidence will dominate through this period. 
Lingering late day diurnal cu will fade into the evening with the 
loss of daytime heating and steady influx of drier air. Low 
temperatures overnight will range from the mid-50s across northern 
and rural areas to the lower 60s closer to the Detroit metro area. 
High pressure anchors directly over the central Great Lakes on 
Sunday. Mostly sunny skies during the day will yield seasonable 
highs in the upper 70s with dew points remaining comfortably in the 
50s. 

Low-to-mid level ridging over the central Plains will drift eastward 
directly over the Great Lakes early in the week. Broad subsidence 
and a very dry atmospheric column will maintain abundant sunshine 
and pleasant conditions across southeast Michigan on Monday. High 
temperatures will remain at near seasonal norms in the upper 70s 
with dew points remaining capped in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By 
Tuesday, the high pressure center shifts east toward the Atlantic 
seaboard, allowing low-level flow to veer around to the south-
southwest. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley will lift 
daytime highs back into the lower 80s. The daytime hours on Tuesday 
are expected to remain mostly dry under warm return flow, though 
high clouds will gradually thicken from west to east by late 
afternoon. 

A strong Pacific upper-level disturbance will traverse southern 
Canada, flattening the Great Lakes ridge and driving a surface low 
across Ontario. An accompanying cold front will sweep south through 
lower Michigan Wednesday. Moisture return ahead of the boundary will 
push dew points back up, supporting the next round of scattered 
showers and rumbles of thunder starting late Tuesday night and 
peaking on Wednesday. Temperatures will spike into the mid-to-upper 
80s Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage before cooler, drier air 
returns for the second half of the week.

MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions are forecast through the weekend as high 
pressure builds south from central Ontario, eventually settling over 
Lake Huron. This should promote stable and mainly dry conditions 
into early next week as more tranquil conditions take root. The next 
chance for increasing winds and waves arrives Tuesday night into 
Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system. The stronger Gulf- 
modified southwesterly flow and the low's associated warm/cold 
fronts should lead to rising thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.