Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 060519
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
119 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler and much drier air moves in Sunday-Monday with another 
  quick heatwave moving in Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

===== This Evening - Sunday Night =====

Anticipating additional scattered convection this afternoon and 
evening. Already seeing scattered cumulus forming along the stalled 
out boundary over our west/southwestern counties towards Bowling 
Green. These areas will likely see the first of any storms. As the 
evening progresses, these storms will grow in coverage, more so 
across the west. There is decent instability with mixed layer CAPE 
upwards of 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis. 
Downdraft cape is near or just above 1,000 J/kg as well, meaning any 
storm that develops carries mainly a risk of strong winds from 
downburst and possibly small hail considering the amount of 
instability. Considering how dry the CWA has been, we're not 
necessarily concerned with flooding with these storms, however 
should one or two train over the same areas, low-end flash flooding 
is a possibility. Latest HREF LPMM data suggests isolated areas 2-
3". However, the whole area has a ~90% of remaining under 0.5" this 
afternoon according to the latest HREF guidance as well. 

That being said, this afternoon has been hot with heat indices 
reaching the mid 100s in the central and western CWA. A heat 
advisory continues until 8 PM EDT for this excessive heat. Good news 
is that after any storms this evening, a backdoor cold front will 
sweep through thanks to a trough over the eastern seaboard. This 
will help drop dew points and temperatures overnight and into 
tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, with 
the coolest areas in the NE closest to the approaching front. 

By Sunday morning, there will be a notable difference in how muggy 
the air will feel. With a continued NE flow, dew points will 
continue to drop throughout the day, making highs in the low to mid 
and isolated upper 80s that much more comfortable. Skies will be 
mostly clear and PWATs will decrease to the climatological 20th 
percentile or lower. Meaning this will be a very dry air mass moving 
in Sunday afternoon and evening. Lows Sunday are cooler in the low 
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

===== Monday - Saturday =====

Beginning Monday morning, we remain on the cool side of a surface 
high with a continued NE flow keeping highs in the mid to upper 80s. 
As dry as the air mass will be, PoPs will remain near zero for the 
whole CWA with near normal highs. Overall synoptic pattern changes 
slightly as an Omega pattern begins to break down some. The ridge in 
place over the plains will begin to move south with more of a zonal 
flow setting up over our area through the week.

At the surface, high pressure at the surface will shift east, and a 
southeasterly to eventually southwesterly flow will return. Highs 
will be boosted as a result into the 90s once again by Tuesday-
Wednesday. With the weakened ridge over the plains, a trough will 
move through our area by later Wednesday and Thursday morning. A 
boundary will set up somewhere over the Ohio Valley acting as an 
axis for moisture to travel on. Rain chances mixed with storms 
returns by then with slightly cooler highs in the mid to upper 80s. 
Depending on how far south the boundary pushes later in the week 
will determine if highs remain in the 80s by Friday and Saturday or 
not. For now, expect drier conditions to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Winds still light and variable for most sites this hour, but expect 
a general north to northeasterly wind to set up in the next few 
hours, becoming gusty by late morning as high pressure builds in to 
the region. Model cross sections still show a thick low-level cloud 
deck developing in the next few hours as well. Starting to see a mid 
deck over KLEX and expect KSDF to follow suit an hour or two later. 
KBWG, with the evening rains and a brief clear out should see some 
fog develop and then transition to stratus deck. Drier air filtering 
in with those winds eventually should think out any cloud decks by 
early to mid afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...RJS