Crested Butte

000
FXUS65 KBOU 131149
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
549 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible today
  across the high country.

- Cooler temperatures today and Sunday behind a cold front.

- The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be Sunday. 

- Temperatures heat back up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An early morning cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the 
forecast area today along with gusty northeasterly winds, and an 
increase in low-level moisture. Afternoon temperatures are forecast 
to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across our lower elevations
and mountain valleys. The increasing moisture will help suppress 
any critical fire weather conditions across the lower elevations, 
but with the moisture not expected to push into the higher 
elevations, we will still see some elevated fire weather 
conditions for our mountain valleys where relative humidities are 
still expected to drop into the low to mid teens this afternoon. 
A secondary surge of northeasterlies are expected later this 
afternoon that will enhance upslope flow and precipitation chances
for the afternoon and evening. Precipitation will primarily be 
limited to our Central Mountains, southern foothills, and the 
Palmer Divide, where we could see a few weak thunderstorms and 
showers develop, with low chances of these holding together as 
they move off the higher terrain. With the persistent 
northeasterlies in place, we could see some smoke start to filter 
into the region from fires burning in eastern Wyoming and western 
Nebraska. The greatest concentrations look to make their way into 
the area late tonight/early Sunday morning, settling up against 
the Front Range and urban corridor by sunrise Sunday. 

Much cooler temps are expected Sunday behind today's cold front, 
with well-below normal high temps in the 60s forecast for the 
lower elevations. Ensembles show PWATs increasing to around 
130-140% of normal for the Central Mountains and Palmer Divide 
where up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and a passing shortwave will 
provide enough support for some afternoon thunderstorms that will 
be our best shot for precipitation for the week. QPF will be 
greatest along the Palmer Divide where a few tenths will be 
possible with any storms that develop, with only a few hundredths 
possible elsewhere across the lower elevations. 

Temperatures will start to increase again on Monday as Colorado will 
be on the eastern side of a building upper-level ridge over the 
western CONUS. Ensembles show a significant decrease in PWATs 
through the forecast period and a steady increase to temperatures 
through midweek, where they are looking to peak on Wednesday before 
another cold front slides south across the area sometime Wednesday 
night. PoPs are minimal to nonexistent after Monday and with 
above normal temps expected, we will have to start monitoring for 
critical fire weather conditions developing as fuels start to dry 
out. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Northerly winds have made it to KDEN/KBJC with gusts between 
20-25kts just upstream that are still expected to push south into
the TAF sites in the next hour or so. Winds are expected to 
maintain a north to northeasterly component through the remainder 
of the TAF period, with a secondary push/reinforcement of the NE 
winds expected between 21Z-23Z that will enhance winds with 
roughly 25-30kt winds possible along with some showers developing 
over the southern foothills and Palmer Divide that may make their 
way into the vicinity of all three TAF sites, though the best 
chances would be for KAPA/KBJC between 23Z to 2Z. CIGs are 
expected to start to lower with the showers, dropping down to 
around 5,000' to 6,000' AGL between 3Z to 6Z and continuing to 
drop to MVFR conditions through the early morning Sunday. 
Additionally, with a few wildfires burning to the north, smoke is 
expected to make its way into northeastern Colorado as the 
northeasterly winds persist. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke 
and mean near surface smoke show higher concentrations of smoke 
making it into KDEN/KBJC near sunrise Sunday morning. This could 
create some slant range visibility concerns in addition to the low
ceilings. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9