Crotched Mountain

000
FXUS61 KGYX 052353
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
753 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor update to the Aviation section for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers continue this afternoon, mainly across the interior.
A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out in southwestern New
Hampshire. 

2. A seasonably strong low pressure will cross the St. Lawrence
Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Thunderstorms (some could be 
strong) will be possible ahead of the trailing cold front 
Wednesday, and gusty northwesterly winds will be possible behind
it Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Showers continue across the interior this afternoon into early
evening as an embedded wave in cyclonic flow passes overhead. It
will also bring breezy conditions across southern ME through the
afternoon.

Overnight, gusts slacken but there will remain a breeze as wave
completes its passing. There will be the continued chance for
showers across much of NH through tonight, but these should be
out of the area by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday will be drier, but remain breezy in proximity
to tight pressure gradient to the east. Less clouds Sunday night
brings the possibility for radiational cooling in the valleys,
but higher, more exposed locations could see continued breeze
that negates further overnight cooling.

With the eastward exit of low pressure into Tuesday, comes a
drier continental airmass from Quebec. Temperatures will have
warmed from the weekend, but only into the upper 70s to around
80. Lower daytime relative humidity values could allow for a 
efficient drying day, but the next chance of rain will be
advancing towards the area mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Ensemble MSLP has a sub-1000 mb low pressure moving thru Quebec
north of the Gaspe Peninsula. A cold front will trail that low 
pressure, and most of the weather next week will be centered 
around its passage. A modest southwest LLJ, on the order of 40 
to 50 knots, will develop Wed, but conditions at the surface 
look stable enough that I am not anticipating significant wind 
gusts from it. The southwest winds will transport more moisture 
into the region though, so dewpoints will climb into the 50s 
across the region, and may even push the 60s in parts of the 
southern forecast area. While overall the forecast soundings are
looking pretty stable, this may be enough for some nominal 
instability by afternoon. That is concern because there will be 
plenty of shear thanks to the aforementioned LLJ. CSU machine 
learning severe probabilities are showing a roughly 5 percent 
severe thunderstorm risk locally Wed. That seems reasonable, not
something I plan to highlight in the forecast grids just yet, 
but worth mentioning in discussions/briefings.

The precip itself will be showery in nature along the cold 
front. So I do not anticipate widespread significant rainfall. 
This is yet another high Pop/low QPF type event, which is more 
or less what the NBM is forecasting at this time.

Finally once the front crosses the area, winds shift to 
northwesterly as cold air advection commences. On Thu as mixing 
heights increase that will lead to a gusty day. At this time 
forecast soundings over much of the area indicate that gusts 
around 30 mph are likely. However a few spots may push 40 mph 
across southern NH and coastal western Maine. Once that cooler 
airmass settles into the region, Fri night and Sat night may be 
chilly across many spots. Some widespread 40s are likely, and a 
the northern valley cold spots may be flirting with upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...TEMPO SHRA continue across southern NH next
couple of hours with additional scattered SHRA across NH late 
tonight. These SHRA could bring brief MVFR vis, otherwise 
cigs/vis VFR with SCT MVFR cig at times. If clouds begin to 
thin after midnight, valley fog could develop late for HIE/LEB.
Mainly VFR Sunday, but breezy as NW winds increase with gusts 
15 to 20 kts.

Outlook: 

Sunday Night: VFR with valley fog possible. Light winds.

Monday: VFR, no sig wx.

Tuesday: VFR conditions expected.

Wednesday: Local MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers 
and thunderstorms. LLWS possible near the coast.

Thursday: Becoming VFR. Northwest wind gusts at or above 25 kt 
possible.

Friday-Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest winds continue through Sunday and much of
Monday as broad low pressure influences the region. Gusts should
remain below SCA criteria, but some gusts around 25 kts are
possible Sunday on the outer waters.

Southwest winds increase Wed and by Wed night SCA conditions will be 
possible over all waters. Seas will continue building overnight to 5 
or 6 feet outside of the bays. Winds shift to northwesterly Thu and 
remain breezy, so seas will only gradually diminish thru the day. 
Winds and seas below SCA thresholds are expected Fri into the 
weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro
AVIATION...Schroeter
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro