Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Next chance of rain (20-40%) is Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Near-normal temperatures return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Low pressure is moving across northern Ontario this morning with a 
cold front trailing into northern MN. Radar returns show some weak 
echoes across northern MN but with the dry air in the low levels we 
don't anticipate much of this activity to make it to the 
surface, at best expecting a few sprinkles. The frontal boundary
will march slowly across the Northland today with winds turning
from southerly to northerly with its passage. High pressure 
will build in behind the boundary with cloud cover largely 
clearing out by mid day. This will allow ample time for 
temperatures to recover with another warm day expected as 
afternoon high temperatures climb into the 60s and low 70s. 
Overnight, radiational cooling paired with lightly mixed winds 
and low level moisture could lead to areas of fog developing. 
HREF and REFS suggest a 30-50% probability of fog occurrence 
across the Northland. 

Tomorrow:

Transient surface high pressure will drift eastward across the 
region Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the northern 
Plains and Canadian Prairies. Temperatures will remain well above 
normal as winds turn southerly. Lows Thursday morning will range 
from the low 30s to around 40 degrees. Look for highs in the low 60s 
to low 70s, about 10-20 degrees above normal. Temps will be cooler 
for portions of the North Shore and Arrowhead due to on-shore flow. 
Those readings will be 5-10 degrees above normal with highs in the 
middle 50s to low 60s.

Friday through Sunday Night:

The Pacific cutoff low will get a slight nudge eastward and is 
expected to move into the Intermountain West by Friday morning. 
Surface low pressure is forecast to develop in the Rockies and lift 
northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Saturday morning. A 
warm front is forecast to lift northward across the Northland for 
the end of the work week. Isentropic ascent in the warm sector will 
support a chance of rain showers Friday morning over central and 
north-central Minnesota and spreading eastward across the Northland 
through Saturday morning. The highest rain chances will be found 
near and north of the warm front, mainly over the Iron Range and 
Borderlands Friday evening. Rain amounts will be meager, less than a 
tenth of an inch for most areas. A few locations may pick up 0.1-
0.2". Lingering precipitation chances will be possible Sunday night 
as upper level impulses surge northeast along the trailing boundary 
across the Midwest. Low confidence in the Sunday precipitation as 
this forecast package reintroduced the 20-30% chances after 
being absent from the last 2 packages. Temperatures Saturday 
remain around 15-25 degrees above normal as the Northland stays 
in the warm sector most of the day. Rain chance end from west to
east Saturday and Saturday night.

Next Week:

Split flow aloft will persist into early next week. The northern 
stream will transition toward northwest flow as high pressure drifts 
eastward across the region. The northwesterly flow will bring cooler 
air aloft into the region. Cooler, near- normal, temperatures are 
expected Sunday through next Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 40s 
to low 50s. The high pressure over the region will keep precipitation
chances low to zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The center of high pressure will slide from west to east over the 
international border through Thursday morning then push farther into 
the Great Lakes during the day Thursday. Clear skies will prevail 
today through tomorrow across all TAF sites, with winds diminishing 
to under 5 kts this afternoon and continuing to drop to near calm 
this evening through Thursday morning. Clear skies with light winds 
will promote at least patchy fog development during the early 
morning hours, with the most susceptible sites being DLH-HIB-HYR 
while also possible at BRD. Have brought conditions down to 1-3sm at 
this point, but LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Once past 
sunrise and deeper mixing allows for slightly stronger surface winds 
and scouring out of the low level moisture, VFR conditions return by 
late Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Southwest winds through the day around 5 to 10 knots. A front 
will pass over the Lake switching winds to out of the northeast
tonight. Winds will continue to be on the light side until late
Friday when southerly winds ramp up and could lead to hazardous
boating conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

No fire weather concerns at this time. A cold front will move across 
the Northland this morning with southerly winds switching to out of 
the north behind the boundary. High pressure building in behind the 
exiting front will clear skies out and keep winds light. Min RHs may 
dry out to around 30% across northern MN. Light rain chances (20-
40%) return Friday afternoon and linger into the weekend. 

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt/Huyck
AVIATION...WFO MPX/Calderone 
MARINE...Britt 
FIRE WEATHER...Britt