Mt. Bachelor

000
FXUS66 KPDT 060503
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1003 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- An upper low will bring periods of showers this weekend, 
  mainly over the mountains...with the best chances Sunday into 
  Monday.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances (<25%) across the mountains
  through Monday.

- Drier conditions from later Monday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move
eastward through Sunday and by Monday will generally be east of
the area. The associated trough will gradually flatten and by 
later Monday, the flow will become split across the region. 
Ridging from the south will build in by midweek, before another 
trough drops down for next weekend. 

The persistent upper low will continue to bring unsettled 
weather over the region, with periods of shwoers, mainly over 
the mountains. The best time for more widespread showers looks 
to be Sunday afternoon/evening into early Monday morning. 

There will also be chances for isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evenings,
especially over the mountains. By Monday afternoon, 
precipitation chances shift generally from the Blue Mountains 
eastward, and by later Monday generally east of the area.

QPF values have decrease a bit everywhere except along the
Oregon Cascade crest this afternoon/evening, where amounts are
generally >0.50 inches. Elsewhere amounts are generally less 
than 0.25 inches. On Sunday into Monday, amounts are highest 
over the Blue Mountains and pints eastward where amounts range 
from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. 

Temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal through the
weekend and the ECMWF EFI puts much of the area in the 0.7 to
0.8 below normal. On Sunday, much of the southern Oregon Blue 
Mountains and portions of central Oregon are in the 80th to 
90th percentile for precipitation as well, from the EFI. 

Monday looks to be a bit breezy with winds 25 to 30 mph, 
possibly as high as 35 mph in the Cascade Gaps, Columbia Basin, 
Gorge, Simcoe Highlands and Kittitas Valley.

Beyond Monday, dry weather will move in as the trough moves east
of the region and the flow becomes more split and zonal. By
midweek, there will be some ridging moving in from the south.
Most of the week looks dry with more seasonable temperatures.

Another trough looks to approach toward the end of the week and
will bring precipitation chances again, mainly to the mountains.
This trough looks to be progressive and moves through rather
than lingering in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

An upper cold pool and cross barrier flow will proimote showers
across central Oregon overnight and early Sunday. Ocassional 
showers are possible with about a 10 to 30 percent chance for 
MVFR cigs about 3 kft or less in CB during the afternoon Sunday 
(BDN/RDM). Elsewhere is more likely to see VFR scenarios with 
intermittent showers. Lights winds expected at all terminals 
with the exception of locally gusty.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  45  68  48  74 /   0  30  50  10 
ALW  50  70  53  74 /  10  20  60  30 
PSC  48  73  50  78 /   0  10  20  10 
YKM  51  71  52  77 /   0  40  10   0 
HRI  49  71  49  77 /   0  40  20  10 
ELN  45  71  47  71 /   0  20  20   0 
RDM  40  60  36  67 /  90  80  40   0 
LGD  43  72  46  70 /  20  50  80  40 
GCD  45  69  46  70 /  10  70  80  10 
DLS  55  69  53  74 /  50  80  10   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...71