Solitude
October 21 in the books — biggest dump on this date: 4.0″ in 2004 (snowed on 2 of 29 recorded years). All-time single day: 21.0″ on Dec 10, 2000.
Stoke today Oct 21
Next 24 hours forecast
Forecast
0.0″
best available forecast · as of Oct 21 15:58
NWS 0.0″ · Open-Meteo 0.0″
Last 24 hours measured
Station
0.0″
Brighton SNOTEL · 2.5 km · depth 0.0″ · rolling 24 h, observed Oct 21 15:00
Next 48 hours (2.3″ snow · as of Oct 21 15:58)
10-day outlook
Forecast data: National Weather Service; Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0); Data from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0) — adapted by SnowAlert.
In the forecaster’s words
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny. High near 48, with temperatures falling to around 46 in the afternoon. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
This Afternoon
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy. High near 47, with temperatures falling to around 45 in the afternoon. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight
A slight chance of rain before 9pm. Mostly cloudy. Low around 38, with temperatures rising to around 40 overnight. South southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
Rain likely before noon, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High near 45, with temperatures falling to around 43 in the afternoon. South southeast wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of thunderstorms and rain and snow showers between 9pm and midnight, then a slight chance of thunderstorms and rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Friday 2–4″
Snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms before 9am, then snow between 9am and noon, then snow showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. South southwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Forecast discussion SLC · Oct 20 22:15
- Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday morning across southern Utah, with coverage expanding northward through Friday. Many areas will see precipitation accumulations between 0.5-2" through this period, with local totals in excess of 3" possible. - The heavy rain will bring a threat of flash flooding to southern and central Utah, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across southern Utah Wednesday and across southern through east-central Utah Thursday. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail across southern Utah on Wednesday and statewide on Thursday, with a 2% chance of a tornado. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place on Wednesday across far southern Utah, southern through west-central Utah on Thursday. - The late week storm will also bring accumulating snowfall to the high terrain across northern and central Utah on Friday, with 2-6" possible mainly above 9000 feet. Locally higher amounts are possible in favored locations.
Read the full discussion
000
FXUS65 KSLC 210415
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1015 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday morning across
southern Utah, with coverage expanding northward through Friday.
Many areas will see precipitation accumulations between 0.5-2"
through this period, with local totals in excess of 3" possible.
- The heavy rain will bring a threat of flash flooding to southern
and central Utah, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall across southern Utah Wednesday and across southern
through east-central Utah Thursday.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing
gusty winds and hail across southern Utah on Wednesday and
statewide on Thursday, with a 2% chance of a tornado. A Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place on Wednesday across
far southern Utah, southern through west-central Utah on
Thursday.
- The late week storm will also bring accumulating snowfall to the
high terrain across northern and central Utah on Friday, with 2-6"
possible mainly above 9000 feet. Locally higher amounts are
possible in favored locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The large-scale pattern this evening consists of a
closed low spinning off the central California coast while Utah
remains under a southerly flow ahead of it. An upper jet rounding
the base of the low and punching through Arizona this evening is
helping to spread tropical moisture northward. Across Utah, PWATs
currently range from 0.6-0.9 inches, which is already close to the
99th percentile of climatology. Increased moisture advection will
only push these values higher over the next couple of days.
As the jet arrives over Utah, increasing upper diffluence may
lead to some isolated shower activity tonight, mainly over
northwest Utah. As the deeper moisture arrives after 10z, expect
precipitation activity to start increasing across southern Utah.
This precipitation will become more widespread across southern
and central Utah through the day Wednesday. Models indicate a
brief decrease in precipitation Wednesday night before increasing
again areawide for Thursday. Areas of moderate to heavy
precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday, and will be
aided in part by potentially strong to severe convection as
suggested by hi-res models. If instability does not become
inhibited too much by cloud cover, there will be plenty of shear
(40-55+ kt of 0-6km shear) and low-level helicity to work with
across southern Utah on Wednesday and across a significant portion
of the forecast area on Thursday for a few of the stronger storms
to produce strong winds, hail, and even an outside chance of a
tornado. There is currently a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms
across southern Utah on Wednesday and across southern through
weest-central Utah on Thursday. Additionally, with the heavy rain,
there is also a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across southern
Utah on Wednesday and across southern through east-central Utah
on Thursday. Also on Thursday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall extends through the remainder of Utah. A Flood Watch is
in effect across southern through east-central Utah Wednesday
through Thursday as a result. Latest NBM continues to indicate
widespread 1 to greater than 2.5 inches of QPF across southern
through east-central Utah Wednesday through Thursday, with 75th
percentile amounts exceeding 3 inches near Brian Head and Boulder
Mountain.
On Friday, the upper low is expected to lift across northern Utah
while a trailing wave rotating around the low swings across the
desert southwest. The track of the low across northern Utah will
keep precipitation confined more to the north on Friday, while
cooler air arrives into the area (H7 temperatures down to around
-3C Friday through Saturday night). This will bring snow levels as
low as 7000-7500 feet, with accumulating snow of around 2-6
inches forecast above around 9000 feet, mainly across the
Wasatch and Uinta Mountains.
The trailing wave swinging around Arizona now looks to redevelop
into a closed low which will then linger over the area. As such,
there is now increasing likelihood for cool and unsettled weather
to remain in place through the weekend. Thereafter, high pressure
looks to build into the area early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the
overnight hours. Winds are expected to remain southerly tonight and
through the day tomorrow, becoming occasionally gusty during the
afternoon. There is a 30 percent chance that showers will impact the
terminal during the late afternoon and early evening, with the most
likely impact being gusty and erratic winds.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR
conditions through the evening with increasing clouds over southern
Utah overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
over southern Utah throughout the morning, spreading into some
northern portions of the airspace during the afternoon. Any storms
that develop will have the potential of producing gusty and erratic
winds, lightning, and brief mountain obscurations.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch from 6 AM MDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for
UTZ117-123>131.
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for UTZ120-121.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Traphagan
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Sources & last updated
- Data from MET Norway — CC BY 4.0, adapted by SnowAlert fetched Oct 21 14:46
- National Weather Service fetched Oct 21 15:58
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com, from the ECMWF and NOAA models — CC BY 4.0, adapted by SnowAlert fetched Oct 21 15:58
- USDA NRCS SNOTEL fetched Oct 21 15:35