Sun Valley

000
FXUS66 KOTX 211753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues today with mild afternoon temperatures.

- Medium to high confidence for rain across far eastern  
  Washington and north Idaho Thursday afternoon through Friday 
  morning.
 
- Breezy to gusty west to northwest winds across central
  Washington and southeast Washington Thursday night through
  Friday afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and mild temperatures are expected again today. 
Precipitation chances increase across far eastern Washington 
and north Idaho Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.
This comes with stronger west to northwest winds across central
and southeast Washington through Friday afternoon. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday: Another warm and dry day is on tap for the Inland NW
as a dry southwest flow continues. Highs will reach the mid 
60s to low 70s which is around 10 degrees above normal.

Thursday and Friday Night: Changes arrive as a low off the 
California coast ejects northeast into California, Nevada and 
southern Idaho. While the system is passing well to our south, 
some of this moisture gets picked up by an incoming upper trough
from the west, with precipitable water values increasing to 
near 150 percent of normal across the eastern third of 
Washington and as much as 200 percent of normal in North Idaho. 
This will translate to a 60-80 percent chance of rain over the 
Central Panhandle Mountains down through the LC Valley, Camas 
Prairie, Blue Mountains, and Palouse and a 30-50 percent chance 
of rain from Ritzville up through Spokane, Newport, and the 
North ID Panhandle. Yet with the incoming trough from the west 
this moisture increase is short lived which will likely keep 
precipitation amounts to less than a tenth of an inch across 
Eastern Washington with a tenth to quarter inch over the Central
Panhandle Mountains and Camas Prairie. Drier air associated 
with this trough will result in much drier air coming into 
Central WA on Friday as precipitable water values plummet to 
25-50 percent of normal. This combined with breezy north-
northwest winds (locally windy down the Okanogan Valley and 
Waterville Plateau) behind a cold front will promote elevated 
fire weather conditions and the potential for patchy blowing 
dust. Winds ease Friday Night, and with the very dry air over 
the region radiational cooling will be strong, with freezing 
temperatures for most (except locally around Wenatchee), with 
the colder pockets such as Republic and Deer Park falling into 
the low 20s.

Saturday through Tuesday: Ensembles to continue to struggle with
a low that strengthens off the southern BC coast on Saturday and
then what happens after that. 40 percent of the clusters move
the low near or over the region for cooler and showery weather
while the other 60 percent maintain ridging over the region.
Given the uncertainty not too many changes to this part of the
forecast which currently provides a middle ground of the model
solutions with near seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in
the 50s and a 20-30 percent chance of showers. But with a 10-15
degree range between the NBM 10th and 90th percentiles there is
low confidence in the forecast details. If the cooler and
showery scenario pans out snow could fall as low as 3500 to 5000
feet in the Cascades and northern mountains but again confidence
is low. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions through the 24 hr TAF period 
with any ceilings above 12k ft AGL. Light wind are expected 
today. Increasing winds and chances for showers to develop after 
18Z Thursday. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. KD

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our 
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        67  40  64  41  59  33 /   0   0  20  40   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  68  40  66  40  56  32 /   0   0  10  60  10   0 
Pullman        68  42  62  36  51  30 /   0   0  60  60   0   0 
Lewiston       70  46  64  45  58  36 /   0   0  70  70  10   0 
Colville       68  31  67  34  60  24 /   0   0   0  20   0   0 
Sandpoint      66  37  66  38  56  30 /   0   0   0  50  10   0 
Kellogg        69  43  67  39  50  30 /   0   0  30  70  30   0 
Moses Lake     68  35  66  37  64  29 /   0   0  10   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      67  46  69  42  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           69  39  68  39  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$