Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 060517 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1117 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly along
  and near the high terrain.
  
- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The broad upper high over the south central U.S. has somewhat 
consolidated into a 593 dam high at 500 mb from Missouri southwest 
to El Paso. Showers and thunderstorms are favoring the southern and 
central mountain ranges along with some isolated popcorn storms 
across northeast NM and the Caprock due to being under a plume of 
monsoon moisture of PWATS between 1 to 1.4 inches. With the upper 
high somewhat overhead storm motion will be more slow and erratic 
initially before generally drifting to the north-northeast later in 
the afternoon. Storm coverage will peaking mid afternoon moving into 
the nearby highlands and lower elevations before tapering off early 
to mid this evening around sunset. As always, storms will be capable 
of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially 
across burn scars (currently the case for Ruidoso as of 12:30 PM 
MDT) and poor drainage/low lying areas.

The 592 to 593 dam upper high at 500 mb will be centered somewhere 
between Tucumcari and Dalhart Sunday. Diurnal showers and 
thunderstorms will once again get going across the western and 
central high terrain midday with an overall storm motion north-
northwest. Storm motion across the Sacramento Mountains Sunday 
afternoon should help direct storms west and away from the Ruidoso 
burn scars, so for that reason a Flash Flood Watch has not been 
issued for Sunday afternoon. CAMs also show some isolated popcorn 
storms with slow and erratic motion on the Caprock and across 
northeast NM under the upper high circulation. Colliding outflow 
boundaries from storms across the west central and south central 
mountains and across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains look to result 
in isolated to scattered storm development across the middle and RGV 
Sunday evening. Once again, any storm will be capable of producing 
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in low lying, poor 
drainage, and urban areas. Storms taper off around sunset with the 
loss of daytime heating. Highs both today and tomorrow will be warm 
and near normal across lower elevations of western NM to hot and 5 
to 12 degrees above normal across lower elevations of central and 
eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the 
northern Rockies Monday shifting the upper high east to over the 
central and southern Great Plains. The position of these two upper 
level features will help position the monsoon plume from southwest 
to northeast NM. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor 
the western and central mountains with an overall storm motion to 
the northeast at 10 to 20 mph trying to move in nearby lower 
elevations later in the late afternoon and early evening hours 
before tapering off around sunset. The upper low exits northeast to 
the Dakotas and central Canada Tuesday flattening the upper high 
from eastern NM to central and southern Appalachians and 
strengthening to 597 dam over the mid Mississippi, Ohio and 
Tennessee River Valleys. The monsoon plume and thus better shower 
and storm coverage will remain across western and central NM due to 
this part of the state remaining on the western flank of the upper 
high circulation. 

The 597 dam 500 mb upper high looks to pivot back west to over New 
Mexico as early as Wednesday. This will help disrupt the monsoon 
plume Wednesday and Thursday with recycled moisture helping to keep 
diurnal shower and storm chances across the higher terrain. A 
backdoor front could enter northeast and far east central NM 
Thursday due to a slightly deeper shortwave over the central U.S. 
according to the GFS and AI-GFS resulting in a moisture boost and 
better coverage of showers and storms across this part of the state. 
However, the ECMWF and cluster guidance has the shortwave over the 
central U.S. more shallow and keeps the 594 to 595 dam upper high 
more overhead with no hint of a backdoor front. The upper high over 
the desert SW looks to weaken a little more to 592 to 593 dam at 500 
mb on Friday. However, guidance differs on the amount of available 
moisture with the GFS having PWATS around 0.5 to 0.9 from north to 
south while the ECMWF has PWATS around 1 to 1.2 inches areawide. 
Cluster analysis is split. Right now it looks like scattered showers 
and storms will favor the western and central mountains and nearby 
lower elevations during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs 
next week will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower 
elevations of western and central NM and mid to upper 90s across 
eastern NM which is slightly above average for early to mid 
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly died off and dissipated 
just before midnight with just a few straggling weak showers 
currently lingering in eastern areas of New Mexico. Going into the
daytime Sunday, moisture and instability for storms will persist 
along and east of the central mountain chain, but will also 
expand over more of the southwestern to west central mountains in 
the afternoon. A few isolated storms will struggle to develop 
toward the Jemez and Tusas as well. Storms will be slow-moving, 
leading to heavy downpours which will reduce ceilings and 
visibility temporarily. Small hail, lots of lightning, and gusty 
downburst winds to 45 kt will also accompany stronger storms. 
Storms will have a hard time moving and redeveloping into the 
middle to lower Rio Grande valley through the early evening 
Sunday with only a few showers and weaker storms surviving through
the late overnight hours into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. Scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of 
western and central NM and nearby lower elevations through late next 
week. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and 
flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. Storm coverage 
across these areas gradually lowers mid to late next week as the 
upper high over the south central U.S. looks to shift west to over 
the state. However, forecast uncertainty greatly increases come this 
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  89  63  85 /   0   0  10   0 
Dulce...........................  47  88  49  85 /   0   0  10  10 
Cuba............................  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  30  30 
Gallup..........................  51  88  56  83 /   0   0  20  10 
El Morro........................  53  84  54  81 /   0  20  30  40 
Grants..........................  52  87  57  84 /   0  10  30  60 
Quemado.........................  52  84  57  81 /   0  40  30  70 
Magdalena.......................  59  84  61  82 /  10  20  50  40 
Datil...........................  54  81  57  79 /   5  40  40  60 
Reserve.........................  54  89  57  86 /   5  40  40  60 
Glenwood........................  59  95  62  93 /  10  30  40  50 
Chama...........................  50  82  51  78 /   0   0  20  30 
Los Alamos......................  62  84  60  81 /   0   0  30  40 
Pecos...........................  55  85  56  83 /   5  20  40  30 
Cerro/Questa....................  54  84  56  80 /   0   0   5  20 
Red River.......................  47  79  48  75 /   5   0  10  20 
Angel Fire......................  43  80  42  77 /   5  10  10  20 
Taos............................  54  87  54  83 /   0   0  10  20 
Mora............................  55  82  54  82 /  10  30  20  40 
Espanola........................  60  91  61  87 /   0   0  20  40 
Santa Fe........................  61  86  59  83 /   0   5  40  30 
Santa Fe Airport................  60  89  61  86 /   0   0  40  30 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  90  65  88 /   0  10  30  20 
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  92  66  88 /   0  10  30  20 
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  94  66  90 /   0   5  30  20 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  93  68  89 /   0   0  30  20 
Belen...........................  64  94  64  91 /   0  10  30  20 
Bernalillo......................  66  93  66  89 /   0   5  30  30 
Bosque Farms....................  62  93  63  90 /   0  10  30  20 
Corrales........................  65  94  67  90 /   0   5  30  20 
Los Lunas.......................  63  94  65  90 /   0   5  30  20 
Placitas........................  65  89  64  86 /   0  10  30  30 
Rio Rancho......................  66  92  67  88 /   0   0  30  30 
Socorro.........................  68  94  68  92 /   5  10  30  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  84  59  81 /   0  20  30  20 
Tijeras.........................  62  87  62  84 /   0  20  30  20 
Edgewood........................  58  88  58  85 /   0  20  30  30 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  90  56  88 /   5  20  30  30 
Clines Corners..................  59  86  58  84 /  10  30  20  30 
Mountainair.....................  59  86  58  84 /   5  50  30  20 
Gran Quivira....................  59  87  58  85 /  10  50  20  20 
Carrizozo.......................  64  88  62  87 /  20  50  10  10 
Ruidoso.........................  58  80  56  80 /  20  50  10  20 
Capulin.........................  58  84  58  84 /  20  20  20  10 
Raton...........................  56  88  56  88 /  10  20  10  10 
Springer........................  57  90  57  90 /  20  20  20  20 
Las Vegas.......................  58  85  56  84 /  30  30  30  30 
Clayton.........................  66  91  65  91 /  30  20  20   0 
Roy.............................  62  88  60  87 /  40  20  30   0 
Conchas.........................  68  96  66  95 /  30  20  30   0 
Santa Rosa......................  66  92  65  91 /  40  10  20   0 
Tucumcari.......................  69  96  68  95 /  20  20  10   0 
Clovis..........................  68  95  66  95 /  10  10   5   0 
Portales........................  68  95  67  95 /  20  10   5   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  68  96  67  94 /  10   5  10   0 
Roswell.........................  69  98  69  97 /  10   0   5   0 
Picacho.........................  63  90  60  90 /  10  10   5   0 
Elk.............................  60  87  57  86 /  20  20   5   5 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52