Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 211728 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026
  
- Flash flood risk increases in northwest New Mexico today,
  spreading eastward into central New Mexico late Thursday into
  Friday. There is the potential for more heavy rainfall and 
  flash flooding in eastern New Mexico over the weekend.

- A few strong to severe storms in western New Mexico today could
  produce damaging outflow wind gusts and large hail. The severe
  threat extends into central New Mexico Thursday, then into
  eastern New Mexico Friday. 

- Rainfall over northwest New Mexico this week will create rises 
  on tributaries as well as main stem rivers such as the San Juan 
  and Animas. No river flooding is currently forecast, but trends 
  will be monitored closely over the next few days. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The Pacific storm system that will impact the desert southwest mid-
week through the weekend is starting to take shape. A closed Low is 
spinning off the coast of soCal while an atmospheric river (AR) 
extends from the central Pacific into Arizona. A seasonably moist 
airmass already resides over New Mexico, with dewpoints ranging from 
the 30s in the northeast to the upper-50s in southern New Mexico.
Very strong moisture advection will occur today in central AZ, with 
western New Mexico along the eastern fringes. PWATs surge to 200 to 
350% of normal over northwest NM, shattering record atmospheric 
moisture levels for mid-October. Rain chances will favor the 
northwest corner of the state Wednesday, although they have 
continued to trend lower given that the closed Low off the 
California coast should take its time moving inland. The path of the 
main closed Low has continued to trend further northwest and is 
therefore more progressive as it gets picked up quicker by the polar 
jet stream.

Both the severe and flash flood threat Wednesday will focus over the 
NW corner of the state. Both the HREF and RRFS show bulk shear of 30 
to 40 knots along with sfc based CAPE of around 500 J/kg overlapping 
in northwest NM, which may be sufficient to support the development 
of a few supercells. Furthermore 0-1 km SRH values of 100 to 150 
m2/s2 suggest a low potential for a brief tornado in far west NM 
near the AZ border. In fact, SRH values trend higher (up to 250) 
during the evening and overnight hours, although the lack of sfc 
based CAPE will be the limiting factor for nocturnal supercells.

Hi-res models are bearish on the potential for heavy rainfall 
through Thursday morning, showing a less than 20% chance of 1" in a 
period of 6 hours or shorter. This looks to change on Thursday as 
the main IVT plume finally moves into far western NM and the main 
trough lifts into the central Rockies. An area of focused convection 
is likely to push from eastern AZ into western NM Thursday where 6-
hourly LPMM rainfall amounts from the HREF show the potential for 
localized rainfall totals of 1-3" with this main band. This band 
will become decoupled from the upper-level forcing as it crosses the 
Continental Divide, rapidly dissipating as it attempt to move into 
the Rio Grande Valley. The marginal severe threat Thursday afternoon 
will focus along and just ahead of this precip. band. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

While the main trough will eject northwest into the northern Rockies 
Thursday into Friday, troughing associated with the sub-tropical jet 
will persist over the desert southwest Friday into the weekend, 
keeping moist southwest flow over New Mexico. The main area of 
diffluence aloft will focus over eastern NM on Friday afternoon. A 
swath of MU CAPE of 500-700 J/kg will likely extend from south-
central NM into the northeast corner of the state. Training of 
storms could produce some localized flash flooding and the Marginal 
ERO has been maintained with very little change. Given that elevated 
instability will be driving much of this convection, high rain 
chances will continue into the overnight hours.

This second storm system will be more neutrally titled, allowing 
stronger southeasterly moisture advection into eastern NM over the 
weekend. Upslope flow along with strong diffluence aloft will drive 
precipitation, but persistent low clouds could impact sfc based 
instability. 48-hour rainfall totals continue to trend higher, with 
50th percentile amounts now showing a swath of 2-3" in the east-
central and northeast plains. High-end guidance (90th percentile) 
shows values upwards of 4.5" for the same period. Drier westerly 
flow should eventually take over Monday or Tuesday of next week, 
with only lingering PoPs across southeast New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across central
and eastern NM, although with the development and gradual 
lowering of VFR cigs. Sct/num showers and thunderstorms will 
bring MVFR impacts off-and-on through the period across far 
western NM. Thunderstorm impacts are likely late this afternoon 
and evening at KGUP and KFMN. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 
seven days. A wet Fall pattern is forecast for the next several 
days. Numerous showers and storms will focus over western New Mexico 
Wednesday and Thursday, shifting to central and eastern New Mexico 
Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances will slowly trend down 
early next week. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely during this 
period with forecast rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" commonplace, with 
higher amounts of 2-3" in northwest New Mexico.

Prevailing winds will be from the south in most areas Wednesday 
through Friday as an unusually moist airmass is advected northward 
into the area. Gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be commonplace, 
particularly Thursday and Friday afternoons. Brief and infrequent 
gusts of 40 to 60 mph could occur near strong, fast-moving storms 
each day. Prevailing wind speeds will trend weaker this weekend into 
the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  53  68  50 /  80  80  80  80 
Dulce...........................  67  47  63  46 /  60  80  80  90 
Cuba............................  68  50  65  48 /  40  40  70  80 
Gallup..........................  68  51  67  47 /  70  80  80  90 
El Morro........................  69  49  64  45 /  50  50  80  90 
Grants..........................  70  50  65  48 /  60  40  80  90 
Quemado.........................  72  52  68  48 /  30  30  80  80 
Magdalena.......................  71  54  68  51 /   5   5  40  60 
Datil...........................  69  50  65  47 /  30  10  70  80 
Reserve.........................  76  52  70  50 /  40  40  90 100 
Glenwood........................  80  57  74  53 /  50  60  90 100 
Chama...........................  64  46  60  44 /  40  80  80  90 
Los Alamos......................  69  51  66  50 /   5  30  40  70 
Pecos...........................  72  48  68  47 /  10  20  30  70 
Cerro/Questa....................  68  46  66  47 /   0  20  40  60 
Red River.......................  65  41  59  41 /   0  20  40  60 
Angel Fire......................  66  39  65  41 /   0  10  40  50 
Taos............................  71  46  69  47 /   0  20  30  60 
Mora............................  69  46  67  46 /   5  10  30  50 
Espanola........................  76  51  73  52 /   5  30  30  60 
Santa Fe........................  71  52  68  50 /   5  20  30  70 
Santa Fe Airport................  74  52  70  50 /   5  20  30  70 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  57  73  55 /   5  10  30  60 
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  56  73  54 /   0  10  30  60 
Albuquerque Valley..............  78  56  74  55 /   0  20  30  60 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  56  72  55 /   5  20  30  60 
Belen...........................  78  55  75  55 /   0  10  30  50 
Bernalillo......................  78  55  74  54 /   5  20  30  60 
Bosque Farms....................  78  55  75  55 /   0  10  30  50 
Corrales........................  79  55  74  55 /   5  20  30  60 
Los Lunas.......................  78  55  74  55 /   0  10  30  50 
Placitas........................  74  55  72  54 /   5  20  30  60 
Rio Rancho......................  77  55  73  55 /   5  20  40  60 
Socorro.........................  80  58  76  56 /   0   5  20  50 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  51  68  50 /  10  10  30  60 
Tijeras.........................  74  53  70  51 /  10  10  20  60 
Edgewood........................  74  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  60 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  49  73  49 /  20  10  10  50 
Clines Corners..................  72  50  69  49 /  10  10  10  50 
Mountainair.....................  74  50  71  50 /  10   0  10  50 
Gran Quivira....................  74  51  72  50 /   0   0   5  40 
Carrizozo.......................  76  55  75  54 /  10   0   5  30 
Ruidoso.........................  72  51  70  50 /  10   0   0  30 
Capulin.........................  70  50  70  49 /   0   0   0  20 
Raton...........................  74  48  74  48 /   0   5  10  20 
Springer........................  75  48  75  50 /   0  10  10  20 
Las Vegas.......................  72  48  68  47 /   0  10  20  40 
Clayton.........................  76  54  78  54 /   0   0   0   5 
Roy.............................  74  51  72  51 /   0   0   5  10 
Conchas.........................  80  56  80  56 /   0   0   0  10 
Santa Rosa......................  78  54  76  55 /   0   0   0  10 
Tucumcari.......................  81  57  82  57 /   0   0   0  10 
Clovis..........................  81  56  79  55 /   0   0   0   5 
Portales........................  82  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   5 
Fort Sumner.....................  80  55  79  56 /   0   0   0  10 
Roswell.........................  82  56  81  58 /   0   0   0  10 
Picacho.........................  78  54  76  53 /   0   0   0  20 
Elk.............................  78  53  74  52 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Thursday night for NMZ201>210-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11